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May 26, 2021Liked by Blind Squirrel

Great piece, thank you for sharing! What about VR as an at home competitor? Fitness is deeply apart of my life and a VR game should not make me exhausted, but I constantly find myself on the floor sweating after a session. It is to the point that I substitute VR for high intensity cardio some days. With that being said do you see VR as something of a risk or a potential opportunity for Peloton?

Thanks again for putting this together!

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Blind Squirreljust now

Hey Nathan, thanks for reading. I think VR is quite interesting and has great potential over the next decades.

I have seen some VR fitness games and I have even tried a few. The most serious drawback is that you need to wear a headset while working out and sweating, which can be quite annoying.; moreover, fitness requires dedicated hardware, those are the main reasons that led me to believe that VR will not be a serious competitor over the next few years. But as you point out VR sometimes combines fitness and gaming and I will be paying attention to the industry over the next decades.

Here you have an interesting interview from the founder of Supernatural (VR fitness app) :

https://www.theverge.com/22379859/vr-virtual-reality-fitness-work-out-supernatural-chris-milk-interview

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May 24, 2021Liked by Blind Squirrel

Good read. I was skeptical due to the high valuation but recently signed up for the digital service. I am impressed by the quality of the content and the engagment metrics that you point out. It has given my old bike trainer(by Tacx which was acquired by Garmin) a new life and can certainly envision buying their hardware if it keeps me engaged.

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That's fantastic , as you point out it all comes down to keeping users engaged

Thanks for reading !

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Interesting to revisit this now a year later after the stock is down 85%+

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I think the thesis was not bad qualitatively. Drank too much of the Kool aid and vastly overestimated management quality + execution. Sold my full position when they first lied shareholders ( CFO told no need to raise , and raised a few weeks later )

Still think the franchise quality is fantastic though ( existing members retention is very healthy) but at this point it is a turnaround

Plan to revisit this article every couple months / years. Reflecting on mistakes is the best way to progress

Glad it helped you

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